Et af de bedste indikatorer på, at den igangværende masseindvandring til Europa handler om mere og andet end borgerkrig, er det elementære forhold, at de flygtende for en stor dels vedkommende er yngre mænd. Noget der minder mig om den indledende dialog i Anders Thomas Jensens kortfilm Valgaften (1998).

Vennerne Karl og Peter mødes på en beværtning, og Peter undskylder at han kommer for sent, fordi han netop har sendt 2000 tæpper til Albanien. Noget Karl ikke giver mening, på trods af borgerkrig: “Hvad fanden skal de med tæpper… hvor fedt er et at være bevæbnet med et tæppe”. Det er sagen i en nøddeskal.

Vil man styrke Islamisk Stat, skal man blot give asyl til syriske mænd der flygter fra samme. Handlede det blot om sikkerhed, så burde det jo først og fremmest være kvinder og børn der flygtede til Europa. Det er det ikke, fortæller professor Valerie Hudson i Politico, og pointerer at den skæve kønsfordelinger udgør kimen til social uro i Europa. Tågen letter, men vi har intet set endnu. Lang kommentar i Politico – Europe’s man problem.

“The recent surge of migration into Europe has been unprecedented in scope, with an estimated 1 million migrants from the Middle East and North Africa this past year alone, making for a massive humanitarian crisis, as well as a political and moral dilemma for European governments. But one crucial dimension of this crisis has gone little-noticed: sex or, more technically, sex ratios.

According to official counts, a disproportionate number of these migrants are young, unmarried, unaccompanied males. In fact, the sex ratios among migrants are so one-sided — we’re talking worse than those in China, in some cases — that they could radically change the gender balance in European countries in certain age cohorts.

… years of research has shown that male-dominated societies are less stable, because they are more susceptible to higher levels of violence, insurgence and mistreatment of women. In Germany, scores of women recently reported being attacked on New Year’s Eve by men whom the authorities describe as of ‘North African or Arabic’ descent. While it is not yet known whether the alleged perpetrators were migrants, the attacks may finally be alerting policymakers to the risks of a male-dominated migration wave. Why would European societies, many of which rank highest on global measures of gender equality and stability and peace, jeopardize those hard-won and enviable rankings?

… 66.26 percent of adult migrants registered through Italy and Greece over the past year were male, according to the International Organization of Migration. That imbalance might not sound radical, but it is, especially when you look more closely at who those males are. … more than 20 percent of migrants are minors below the age of 18, and the IOM estimates that more than half of those minors traveling to Europe are traveling as unaccompanied minors — 90 percent of whom are males.

… According to Swedish government statistics, as of the end of November, 71 percent of all applicants for asylum to Sweden in 2015 were male. More than 21 percent of all migrants to Sweden were classified as unaccompanied minors, representing more than half of all minor migrants to the country. … Those numbers are a recipe for striking imbalances within Sweden. Consider that more than half of these unaccompanied minors entering Sweden are 16 or 17 years old, or at least claim to be. … Sure enough, when those figures are added to the existing counts of 16- and 17-year-old boys and girls in Sweden—103,299 and 96,524, respectively, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s International Database—you end up with a total of 121,914 males in Sweden aged 16 or 17 and 99,079 females of the same age. The resulting ratio is astonishing: These calculations suggest that as of the end of 2015, there were 123 16- and 17-year-old boys in Sweden for every 100 girls of that age.

If that trend continues into 2016 or even beyond, each successive late adolescent cohort of 16- and 17-year-olds will be similarly abnormal, and over time the abnormality will become an established fact of the broader young adult population in Sweden. … young adult sex ratios are arguably the most crucial of all for social stability.

… And what is often invisible in the debates over migration is that the women left behind by this largely male exodus are usually left in dire situations: In displaced persons camps in Syria or refugee camps in Turkey, Jordan and surrounding countries, female-headed households live in fear and penury, prey to exploitation and abuse. …

While the humanitarian needs of the refugees streaming into Europe must be foremost in our minds at this time, policymakers in Sweden and other countries should also think of the long-term consequences of an unprecedented alteration in the young adult sex ratios of their societies.”